{ "name": "HIV transmission risk reference tables", "url": "https://www.hivriskcalculator.com/risk-tables", "calculator": "https://www.hivriskcalculator.com", "generated": "2026-10-29", "disclaimer": "Statistical estimates for education, not a diagnosis. Only an HIV test can confirm or rule out infection.", "sources": { "perAct": "CDC HIV risk and prevention estimates", "windowPeriods": "CDC HIV testing", "prevalence": "UNAIDS estimates via World Bank indicator SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS (adults 15-49)", "circumcision": "Morris et al. 2016, Population Health Metrics 14:4, corrected table from erratum 14:11 (PMC4820865)", "methodology": "https://www.hivriskcalculator.com/methodology" }, "keyFacts": [ "PEP (post-exposure prophylaxis) must start within 72 hours of an exposure, ideally within 24 hours, and is taken daily for 28 days. CDC (2025) recommends follow-up HIV tests 4–6 weeks and 12 weeks after the exposure.", "A lab antigen/antibody test (blood from a vein) is conclusive from 45 days after exposure; NAT from 33 days; rapid finger-prick and home self-tests from 90 days (CDC).", "Undetectable = untransmittable (U=U): a person with HIV who keeps an undetectable viral load on treatment does not transmit HIV through sex.", "PrEP taken as prescribed reduces the risk of getting HIV from sex by about 99%, and from injection drug use by at least 74% (CDC).", "HIV is not transmitted by kissing, saliva, sweat, tears, sharing food or toilets, insect bites, or contact with unbroken skin. CDC rates biting, spitting and sharing sex toys as negligible.", "CDC per-act estimates per 10,000 exposures to a source with HIV: receptive anal 138, insertive anal 11, receptive vaginal 8, insertive vaginal 4, needle-sharing 63, needlestick 23; oral sex is 'low' (0–4).", "Circumcision lowers a man's risk of getting HIV through vaginal sex by 50–60%, but doesn't reduce transmission from a man who already has HIV.", "Estimates from this site are statistical, not a diagnosis. Only an HIV test can confirm or rule out infection." ], "riskLevels": [ { "id": "very-low", "label": "Very low", "below": "0.01%" }, { "id": "low", "label": "Low", "below": "0.1%" }, { "id": "moderate", "label": "Moderate", "below": "1%" }, { "id": "high", "label": "High", "below": null } ], "perAct": [ { "id": "receptiveAnal", "label": "Receptive anal sex (partner's penis in your anus)", "route": "sexual", "perAct": 0.0138 }, { "id": "insertiveAnal", "label": "Insertive anal sex (your penis in partner's anus)", "route": "sexual", "perAct": 0.0011 }, { "id": "receptiveVaginal", "label": "Receptive vaginal sex (partner's penis in your vagina)", "route": "sexual", "perAct": 0.0008 }, { "id": "insertiveVaginal", "label": "Insertive vaginal sex (your penis in partner's vagina)", "route": "sexual", "perAct": 0.0004 }, { "id": "oral", "label": "Oral sex (giving or receiving)", "route": "sexual", "perAct": 0.0001 }, { "id": "sharedNeedle", "label": "Shared needles or injection equipment", "route": "blood", "perAct": 0.0063 }, { "id": "needlestick", "label": "Needlestick or cut with a used sharp", "route": "blood", "perAct": 0.0023 }, { "id": "bloodMucosal", "label": "Blood in the eyes, mouth, or an open wound", "route": "blood", "perAct": 0.0009 }, { "id": "kissing", "label": "Kissing, including deep kissing", "route": "none", "perAct": 0 }, { "id": "biteSpit", "label": "Being bitten or spat on", "route": "none", "perAct": 0 }, { "id": "sexToys", "label": "Sharing sex toys", "route": "none", "perAct": 0 }, { "id": "intactSkin", "label": "Blood or body fluids on unbroken skin", "route": "none", "perAct": 0 } ], "modifiers": { "condom": 0.2, "noEjaculation": 0.5, "circumcision": 0.5, "circumcisedPartner": 0.5, "sti": 2, "acute": 10, "pregnancy": { "pregnant": 2.82, "postpartum": 3.97 }, "needlestick": { "deep": 15, "visibleBlood": 6.2, "vesselNeedle": 4.3 }, "keyPopulationOdds": { "sexWorker": 13.5, "msm": 23, "injectsDrugs": 14, "transWoman": 48.8 }, "suppressedOnTreatment": 0.93, "prep": { "sexual": { "consistent": 0.01, "mostly": 0.1, "inconsistent": 0.5 }, "blood": { "consistent": 0.26, "mostly": 0.5, "inconsistent": 0.8 } }, "pep": { "lt24": 0.1, "24to48": 0.2, "48to72": 0.3 }, "pepMissedDoses": 2 }, "testWindows": [ { "id": "nat", "name": "Nucleic acid test (NAT / RNA)", "detectsFromDay": 10, "conclusiveFromDay": 33 }, { "id": "agabLab", "name": "Antigen/antibody lab test (4th gen, blood from a vein)", "detectsFromDay": 18, "conclusiveFromDay": 45 }, { "id": "agabRapid", "name": "Rapid antigen/antibody test (finger-prick)", "detectsFromDay": 18, "conclusiveFromDay": 90 }, { "id": "antibody", "name": "Antibody test (most rapid tests and home self-tests)", "detectsFromDay": 23, "conclusiveFromDay": 90 } ], "tables": [ { "id": "known-positive", "title": "One exposure to a partner known to have HIV", "note": "Chance of transmission from a single act. 'No protection' assumes the partner isn't on effective treatment. Blood exposures are unaffected by condoms or STIs, and U=U is not established for them.", "columns": [ "No protection", "Condom", "PrEP (consistent)", "PEP within 24h", "Another STI", "Partner recently infected", "Partner undetectable (U=U)" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Receptive anal sex (man with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0138, "percent": "1.4%", "odds": "1 in 72" }, { "probability": 0.00276, "percent": "0.28%", "odds": "1 in 360" }, { "probability": 0.000138, "percent": "0.014%", "odds": "1 in 7,200" }, { "probability": 0.00138, "percent": "0.14%", "odds": "1 in 720" }, { "probability": 0.0276, "percent": "2.8%", "odds": "1 in 36" }, { "probability": 0.138, "percent": "14%", "odds": "1 in 7" }, { "probability": 0, "percent": "0%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Insertive anal sex (man with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0011, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 910" }, { "probability": 0.00022, "percent": "0.022%", "odds": "1 in 4,500" }, { "probability": 0.000011, "percent": "0.0011%", "odds": "1 in 91,000" }, { "probability": 0.00011, "percent": "0.011%", "odds": "1 in 9,100" }, { "probability": 0.0022, "percent": "0.22%", "odds": "1 in 450" }, { "probability": 0.011, "percent": "1.1%", "odds": "1 in 91" }, { "probability": 0, "percent": "0%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Receptive vaginal sex (woman with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0008, "percent": "0.08%", "odds": "1 in 1,200" }, { "probability": 0.00016, "percent": "0.016%", "odds": "1 in 6,200" }, { "probability": 0.000008, "percent": "0.0008%", "odds": "1 in 120,000" }, { "probability": 0.00008, "percent": "0.008%", "odds": "1 in 12,000" }, { "probability": 0.0016, "percent": "0.16%", "odds": "1 in 620" }, { "probability": 0.008, "percent": "0.8%", "odds": "1 in 120" }, { "probability": 0, "percent": "0%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Insertive vaginal sex (man with a woman)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0004, "percent": "0.04%", "odds": "1 in 2,500" }, { "probability": 0.00008, "percent": "0.008%", "odds": "1 in 13,000" }, { "probability": 0.000004, "percent": "0.0004%", "odds": "1 in 250,000" }, { "probability": 0.00004, "percent": "0.004%", "odds": "1 in 25,000" }, { "probability": 0.0008, "percent": "0.08%", "odds": "1 in 1,200" }, { "probability": 0.004, "percent": "0.4%", "odds": "1 in 250" }, { "probability": 0, "percent": "0%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Oral sex (woman with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001, "percent": "0.01%", "odds": "1 in 10,000" }, { "probability": 0.00002, "percent": "0.002%", "odds": "1 in 50,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001, "percent": "0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001, "percent": "0.001%", "odds": "1 in 100,000" }, { "probability": 0.0002, "percent": "0.02%", "odds": "1 in 5,000" }, { "probability": 0.001, "percent": "0.1%", "odds": "1 in 1,000" }, { "probability": 0, "percent": "0%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Shared injection equipment", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0063, "percent": "0.63%", "odds": "1 in 160" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.001638, "percent": "0.16%", "odds": "1 in 610" }, { "probability": 0.00063, "percent": "0.063%", "odds": "1 in 1,600" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.063, "percent": "6.3%", "odds": "1 in 16" }, { "probability": 0.0063, "percent": "0.63%", "odds": "1 in 160" } ] }, { "label": "Needlestick injury", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0023, "percent": "0.23%", "odds": "1 in 430" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.000598, "percent": "0.06%", "odds": "1 in 1,700" }, { "probability": 0.00023, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,300" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.023, "percent": "2.3%", "odds": "1 in 43" }, { "probability": 0.0023, "percent": "0.23%", "odds": "1 in 430" } ] }, { "label": "Blood on mucous membrane", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0009, "percent": "0.09%", "odds": "1 in 1,100" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.000234, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,300" }, { "probability": 0.00009, "percent": "0.009%", "odds": "1 in 11,000" }, "n/a", { "probability": 0.009, "percent": "0.9%", "odds": "1 in 110" }, { "probability": 0.0009, "percent": "0.09%", "odds": "1 in 1,100" } ] } ] }, { "id": "unknown-by-country", "title": "One exposure to a partner of unknown HIV status, by country", "note": "Single act, no condom, partner's status unknown. Uses UNAIDS prevalence split by the partner's sex, raised for men who have sex with men, and (for sexual exposures) only counting people with HIV who aren't virally suppressed.", "columns": [ "Receptive anal sex (man with a man)", "Insertive anal sex (man with a man)", "Receptive vaginal sex (woman with a man)", "Insertive vaginal sex (man with a woman)", "Oral sex (woman with a man)", "Needlestick injury", "Shared injection equipment" ], "rows": [ { "label": "United States", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0005018, "percent": "0.05%", "odds": "1 in 2,000" }, { "probability": 0.00004, "percent": "0.004%", "odds": "1 in 25,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001376, "percent": "0.00014%", "odds": "1 in 730,000" }, { "probability": 6.88e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,500,000" }, { "probability": 1.72e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 5,800,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000092, "percent": "0.00092%", "odds": "1 in 110,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000252, "percent": "0.0025%", "odds": "1 in 40,000" } ] }, { "label": "United Kingdom", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001021, "percent": "0.01%", "odds": "1 in 9,800" }, { "probability": 0.000008136, "percent": "0.00081%", "odds": "1 in 120,000" }, { "probability": 2.726e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 3,700,000" }, { "probability": 6.532e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 15,000,000" }, { "probability": 3.407e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 29,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000046, "percent": "0.00046%", "odds": "1 in 220,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000126, "percent": "0.0013%", "odds": "1 in 79,000" } ] }, { "label": "Canada", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001328, "percent": "0.013%", "odds": "1 in 7,500" }, { "probability": 0.00001058, "percent": "0.0011%", "odds": "1 in 94,000" }, { "probability": 3.455e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,900,000" }, { "probability": 6.165e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 16,000,000" }, { "probability": 4.319e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 23,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000023, "percent": "0.00023%", "odds": "1 in 430,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000063, "percent": "0.00063%", "odds": "1 in 160,000" } ] }, { "label": "Australia", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.00009606, "percent": "0.0096%", "odds": "1 in 10,000" }, { "probability": 0.000007657, "percent": "0.00077%", "odds": "1 in 130,000" }, { "probability": 2.513e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 4,000,000" }, { "probability": 1.995e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 50,000,000" }, { "probability": 3.141e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 32,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000023, "percent": "0.00023%", "odds": "1 in 430,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000063, "percent": "0.00063%", "odds": "1 in 160,000" } ] }, { "label": "Germany", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001274, "percent": "0.013%", "odds": "1 in 7,900" }, { "probability": 0.00001015, "percent": "0.001%", "odds": "1 in 99,000" }, { "probability": 3.434e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,900,000" }, { "probability": 4.428e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 23,000,000" }, { "probability": 4.293e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 23,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000046, "percent": "0.00046%", "odds": "1 in 220,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000126, "percent": "0.0013%", "odds": "1 in 79,000" } ] }, { "label": "France", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001783, "percent": "0.018%", "odds": "1 in 5,600" }, { "probability": 0.00001421, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 70,000" }, { "probability": 4.886e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,000,000" }, { "probability": 1.253e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 8,000,000" }, { "probability": 6.108e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 16,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000069, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 140,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000189, "percent": "0.0019%", "odds": "1 in 53,000" } ] }, { "label": "Spain", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.000232, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,300" }, { "probability": 0.00001849, "percent": "0.0018%", "odds": "1 in 54,000" }, { "probability": 6.486e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,500,000" }, { "probability": 6.69e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 15,000,000" }, { "probability": 8.108e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 12,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000069, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 140,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000189, "percent": "0.0019%", "odds": "1 in 53,000" } ] }, { "label": "Italy", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0002568, "percent": "0.026%", "odds": "1 in 3,900" }, { "probability": 0.00002047, "percent": "0.002%", "odds": "1 in 49,000" }, { "probability": 7.104e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,400,000" }, { "probability": 1.248e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 8,000,000" }, { "probability": 8.88e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 11,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000069, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 140,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000189, "percent": "0.0019%", "odds": "1 in 53,000" } ] }, { "label": "Netherlands", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0000857, "percent": "0.0086%", "odds": "1 in 12,000" }, { "probability": 0.000006831, "percent": "0.00068%", "odds": "1 in 150,000" }, { "probability": 2.237e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 4,500,000" }, { "probability": 2.573e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 39,000,000" }, { "probability": 2.797e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 36,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000023, "percent": "0.00023%", "odds": "1 in 430,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000063, "percent": "0.00063%", "odds": "1 in 160,000" } ] }, { "label": "Ireland", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0000721, "percent": "0.0072%", "odds": "1 in 14,000" }, { "probability": 0.000005747, "percent": "0.00057%", "odds": "1 in 170,000" }, { "probability": 1.925e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 5,200,000" }, { "probability": 4.614e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 22,000,000" }, { "probability": 2.407e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 42,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000046, "percent": "0.00046%", "odds": "1 in 220,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000126, "percent": "0.0013%", "odds": "1 in 79,000" } ] }, { "label": "Brazil", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0007942, "percent": "0.079%", "odds": "1 in 1,300" }, { "probability": 0.0000633, "percent": "0.0063%", "odds": "1 in 16,000" }, { "probability": 0.000002416, "percent": "0.00024%", "odds": "1 in 410,000" }, { "probability": 5.896e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,700,000" }, { "probability": 3.02e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 3,300,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000161, "percent": "0.0016%", "odds": "1 in 62,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000441, "percent": "0.0044%", "odds": "1 in 23,000" } ] }, { "label": "Mexico", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0008727, "percent": "0.087%", "odds": "1 in 1,100" }, { "probability": 0.00006957, "percent": "0.007%", "odds": "1 in 14,000" }, { "probability": 0.000002598, "percent": "0.00026%", "odds": "1 in 380,000" }, { "probability": 2.812e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 3,600,000" }, { "probability": 3.247e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 3,100,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000115, "percent": "0.0011%", "odds": "1 in 87,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000315, "percent": "0.0031%", "odds": "1 in 32,000" } ] }, { "label": "India", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0002183, "percent": "0.022%", "odds": "1 in 4,600" }, { "probability": 0.0000174, "percent": "0.0017%", "odds": "1 in 57,000" }, { "probability": 5.766e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,700,000" }, { "probability": 2.397e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 4,200,000" }, { "probability": 7.207e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 14,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000046, "percent": "0.00046%", "odds": "1 in 220,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000126, "percent": "0.0013%", "odds": "1 in 79,000" } ] }, { "label": "China", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0003106, "percent": "0.031%", "odds": "1 in 3,200" }, { "probability": 0.00002476, "percent": "0.0025%", "odds": "1 in 40,000" }, { "probability": 8e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,200,000" }, { "probability": 4e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,500,000" }, { "probability": 1e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 10,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000023, "percent": "0.00023%", "odds": "1 in 430,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000063, "percent": "0.00063%", "odds": "1 in 160,000" } ] }, { "label": "Thailand", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0005462, "percent": "0.055%", "odds": "1 in 1,800" }, { "probability": 0.00004354, "percent": "0.0044%", "odds": "1 in 23,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001738, "percent": "0.00017%", "odds": "1 in 580,000" }, { "probability": 5.868e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,700,000" }, { "probability": 2.173e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 4,600,000" }, { "probability": 0.000023, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 43,000" }, { "probability": 0.000063, "percent": "0.0063%", "odds": "1 in 16,000" } ] }, { "label": "Philippines", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0009897, "percent": "0.099%", "odds": "1 in 1,000" }, { "probability": 0.00007889, "percent": "0.0079%", "odds": "1 in 13,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000028, "percent": "0.00028%", "odds": "1 in 360,000" }, { "probability": 1.07e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 9,300,000" }, { "probability": 3.5e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,900,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000069, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 140,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000189, "percent": "0.0019%", "odds": "1 in 53,000" } ] }, { "label": "Japan", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0000632, "percent": "0.0063%", "odds": "1 in 16,000" }, { "probability": 0.000005038, "percent": "0.0005%", "odds": "1 in 200,000" }, { "probability": 1.6e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 6,200,000" }, { "probability": 8e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 13,000,000" }, { "probability": 2e-8, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 50,000,000" }, { "probability": 4.6e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,200,000" }, { "probability": 0.00000126, "percent": "0.00013%", "odds": "1 in 790,000" } ] }, { "label": "Russia", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.003013, "percent": "0.3%", "odds": "1 in 330" }, { "probability": 0.0002402, "percent": "0.024%", "odds": "1 in 4,200" }, { "probability": 0.0000096, "percent": "0.00096%", "odds": "1 in 100,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000048, "percent": "0.00048%", "odds": "1 in 210,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000012, "percent": "0.00012%", "odds": "1 in 830,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000276, "percent": "0.0028%", "odds": "1 in 36,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000756, "percent": "0.0076%", "odds": "1 in 13,000" } ] }, { "label": "Ukraine", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.002602, "percent": "0.26%", "odds": "1 in 380" }, { "probability": 0.0002074, "percent": "0.021%", "odds": "1 in 4,800" }, { "probability": 0.000008, "percent": "0.0008%", "odds": "1 in 120,000" }, { "probability": 0.000004, "percent": "0.0004%", "odds": "1 in 250,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,000,000" }, { "probability": 0.000023, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 43,000" }, { "probability": 0.000063, "percent": "0.0063%", "odds": "1 in 16,000" } ] }, { "label": "Nigeria", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0005229, "percent": "0.052%", "odds": "1 in 1,900" }, { "probability": 0.00004168, "percent": "0.0042%", "odds": "1 in 24,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001567, "percent": "0.00016%", "odds": "1 in 640,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001405, "percent": "0.00014%", "odds": "1 in 710,000" }, { "probability": 1.959e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 5,100,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000276, "percent": "0.0028%", "odds": "1 in 36,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000756, "percent": "0.0076%", "odds": "1 in 13,000" } ] }, { "label": "Kenya", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0008501, "percent": "0.085%", "odds": "1 in 1,200" }, { "probability": 0.00006777, "percent": "0.0068%", "odds": "1 in 15,000" }, { "probability": 0.000003099, "percent": "0.00031%", "odds": "1 in 320,000" }, { "probability": 0.000003035, "percent": "0.0003%", "odds": "1 in 330,000" }, { "probability": 3.873e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 2,600,000" }, { "probability": 0.000069, "percent": "0.0069%", "odds": "1 in 14,000" }, { "probability": 0.000189, "percent": "0.019%", "odds": "1 in 5,300" } ] }, { "label": "Uganda", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.00133, "percent": "0.13%", "odds": "1 in 750" }, { "probability": 0.000106, "percent": "0.011%", "odds": "1 in 9,400" }, { "probability": 0.000005976, "percent": "0.0006%", "odds": "1 in 170,000" }, { "probability": 0.000005244, "percent": "0.00052%", "odds": "1 in 190,000" }, { "probability": 7.471e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,300,000" }, { "probability": 0.0001127, "percent": "0.011%", "odds": "1 in 8,900" }, { "probability": 0.0003087, "percent": "0.031%", "odds": "1 in 3,200" } ] }, { "label": "South Africa", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.002558, "percent": "0.26%", "odds": "1 in 390" }, { "probability": 0.0002039, "percent": "0.02%", "odds": "1 in 4,900" }, { "probability": 0.00002284, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 44,000" }, { "probability": 0.00002257, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 44,000" }, { "probability": 0.000002855, "percent": "0.00029%", "odds": "1 in 350,000" }, { "probability": 0.0003956, "percent": "0.04%", "odds": "1 in 2,500" }, { "probability": 0.001084, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 920" } ] }, { "label": "Zimbabwe", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.001067, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 940" }, { "probability": 0.00008501, "percent": "0.0085%", "odds": "1 in 12,000" }, { "probability": 0.000007302, "percent": "0.00073%", "odds": "1 in 140,000" }, { "probability": 0.000005522, "percent": "0.00055%", "odds": "1 in 180,000" }, { "probability": 9.127e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,100,000" }, { "probability": 0.0002254, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,400" }, { "probability": 0.0006174, "percent": "0.062%", "odds": "1 in 1,600" } ] }, { "label": "Eswatini", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.001454, "percent": "0.15%", "odds": "1 in 690" }, { "probability": 0.0001159, "percent": "0.012%", "odds": "1 in 8,600" }, { "probability": 0.0000183, "percent": "0.0018%", "odds": "1 in 55,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001444, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 69,000" }, { "probability": 0.000002288, "percent": "0.00023%", "odds": "1 in 440,000" }, { "probability": 0.0005382, "percent": "0.054%", "odds": "1 in 1,900" }, { "probability": 0.001474, "percent": "0.15%", "odds": "1 in 680" } ] }, { "label": "World average", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0005162, "percent": "0.052%", "odds": "1 in 1,900" }, { "probability": 0.00004115, "percent": "0.0041%", "odds": "1 in 24,000" }, { "probability": 0.000001489, "percent": "0.00015%", "odds": "1 in 670,000" }, { "probability": 8.461e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,200,000" }, { "probability": 1.861e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 5,400,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000161, "percent": "0.0016%", "odds": "1 in 62,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000441, "percent": "0.0044%", "odds": "1 in 23,000" } ] } ] }, { "id": "repeated", "title": "Repeated exposures to a partner known to have HIV", "note": "Cumulative chance after n acts with the same untreated partner, no condom: 1 − (1 − p)^n.", "columns": [ "1 time", "2 times", "5 times", "10 times", "20 times", "50 times", "100 times" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Receptive anal sex (man with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0138, "percent": "1.4%", "odds": "1 in 72" }, { "probability": 0.02741, "percent": "2.7%", "odds": "1 in 36" }, { "probability": 0.06712, "percent": "6.7%", "odds": "1 in 15" }, { "probability": 0.1297, "percent": "13%", "odds": "1 in 8" }, { "probability": 0.2426, "percent": "24%", "odds": "1 in 4" }, { "probability": 0.5008, "percent": "50%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.7508, "percent": "75%", "odds": null } ] }, { "label": "Insertive anal sex (man with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0011, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 910" }, { "probability": 0.002199, "percent": "0.22%", "odds": "1 in 450" }, { "probability": 0.005488, "percent": "0.55%", "odds": "1 in 180" }, { "probability": 0.01095, "percent": "1.1%", "odds": "1 in 91" }, { "probability": 0.02177, "percent": "2.2%", "odds": "1 in 46" }, { "probability": 0.05354, "percent": "5.4%", "odds": "1 in 19" }, { "probability": 0.1042, "percent": "10%", "odds": "1 in 10" } ] }, { "label": "Receptive vaginal sex (woman with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0008, "percent": "0.08%", "odds": "1 in 1,200" }, { "probability": 0.001599, "percent": "0.16%", "odds": "1 in 630" }, { "probability": 0.003994, "percent": "0.4%", "odds": "1 in 250" }, { "probability": 0.007971, "percent": "0.8%", "odds": "1 in 130" }, { "probability": 0.01588, "percent": "1.6%", "odds": "1 in 63" }, { "probability": 0.03923, "percent": "3.9%", "odds": "1 in 25" }, { "probability": 0.07691, "percent": "7.7%", "odds": "1 in 13" } ] }, { "label": "Insertive vaginal sex (man with a woman)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0004, "percent": "0.04%", "odds": "1 in 2,500" }, { "probability": 0.0007998, "percent": "0.08%", "odds": "1 in 1,300" }, { "probability": 0.001998, "percent": "0.2%", "odds": "1 in 500" }, { "probability": 0.003993, "percent": "0.4%", "odds": "1 in 250" }, { "probability": 0.00797, "percent": "0.8%", "odds": "1 in 130" }, { "probability": 0.01981, "percent": "2%", "odds": "1 in 50" }, { "probability": 0.03922, "percent": "3.9%", "odds": "1 in 25" } ] }, { "label": "Oral sex (woman with a man)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001, "percent": "0.01%", "odds": "1 in 10,000" }, { "probability": 0.0002, "percent": "0.02%", "odds": "1 in 5,000" }, { "probability": 0.0004999, "percent": "0.05%", "odds": "1 in 2,000" }, { "probability": 0.0009996, "percent": "0.1%", "odds": "1 in 1,000" }, { "probability": 0.001998, "percent": "0.2%", "odds": "1 in 500" }, { "probability": 0.004988, "percent": "0.5%", "odds": "1 in 200" }, { "probability": 0.009951, "percent": "1%", "odds": "1 in 100" } ] } ] }, { "id": "repeated-unknown", "title": "Repeated exposures with partners of unknown status", "note": "With one partner, their status is fixed, so risk is capped by the chance they have HIV. With different partners, each act is a new draw.", "columns": [ "1 time", "5 times", "10 times", "20 times", "50 times" ], "rows": [ { "label": "UK, man with a man (receptive anal), same partner", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001021, "percent": "0.01%", "odds": "1 in 9,800" }, { "probability": 0.0004964, "percent": "0.05%", "odds": "1 in 2,000" }, { "probability": 0.0009596, "percent": "0.096%", "odds": "1 in 1,000" }, { "probability": 0.001795, "percent": "0.18%", "odds": "1 in 560" }, { "probability": 0.003704, "percent": "0.37%", "odds": "1 in 270" } ] }, { "label": "UK, man with a man (receptive anal), different partners", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.0001021, "percent": "0.01%", "odds": "1 in 9,800" }, { "probability": 0.0005102, "percent": "0.051%", "odds": "1 in 2,000" }, { "probability": 0.00102, "percent": "0.1%", "odds": "1 in 980" }, { "probability": 0.002039, "percent": "0.2%", "odds": "1 in 490" }, { "probability": 0.005091, "percent": "0.51%", "odds": "1 in 200" } ] }, { "label": "US, man with a woman (insertive vaginal), same partner", "cells": [ { "probability": 6.88e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,500,000" }, { "probability": 0.000003437, "percent": "0.00034%", "odds": "1 in 290,000" }, { "probability": 0.000006868, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 150,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001371, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 73,000" }, { "probability": 0.00003407, "percent": "0.0034%", "odds": "1 in 29,000" } ] }, { "label": "US, man with a woman (insertive vaginal), different partners", "cells": [ { "probability": 6.88e-7, "percent": "<0.0001%", "odds": "1 in 1,500,000" }, { "probability": 0.00000344, "percent": "0.00034%", "odds": "1 in 290,000" }, { "probability": 0.00000688, "percent": "0.00069%", "odds": "1 in 150,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001376, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 73,000" }, { "probability": 0.0000344, "percent": "0.0034%", "odds": "1 in 29,000" } ] }, { "label": "South Africa, woman with a man (receptive vaginal), same partner", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.00002284, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 44,000" }, { "probability": 0.000114, "percent": "0.011%", "odds": "1 in 8,800" }, { "probability": 0.0002276, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,400" }, { "probability": 0.0004533, "percent": "0.045%", "odds": "1 in 2,200" }, { "probability": 0.00112, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 890" } ] }, { "label": "South Africa, woman with a man (receptive vaginal), different partners", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.00002284, "percent": "0.0023%", "odds": "1 in 44,000" }, { "probability": 0.0001142, "percent": "0.011%", "odds": "1 in 8,800" }, { "probability": 0.0002284, "percent": "0.023%", "odds": "1 in 4,400" }, { "probability": 0.0004567, "percent": "0.046%", "odds": "1 in 2,200" }, { "probability": 0.001141, "percent": "0.11%", "odds": "1 in 880" } ] } ] }, { "id": "negative-tests", "title": "Remaining risk after one negative test", "note": "Example: one receptive anal exposure to a partner with HIV (1.4% before testing). Each cell is the remaining chance after a single negative result on that day. \"n/a\" means the test can't detect HIV yet, so the risk is unchanged. A negative result after the window period is conclusive.", "columns": [ "Day 10", "Day 14", "Day 18", "Day 21", "Day 28", "Day 33", "Day 35", "Day 42", "Day 45", "Day 60", "Day 90" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Nucleic acid test (NAT / RNA) (window 10–33 days)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.01244, "percent": "1.2%", "odds": "1 in 80" }, { "probability": 0.005078, "percent": "0.51%", "odds": "1 in 200" }, { "probability": 0.002065, "percent": "0.21%", "odds": "1 in 480" }, { "probability": 0.00105, "percent": "0.1%", "odds": "1 in 950" }, { "probability": 0.0002163, "percent": "0.022%", "odds": "1 in 4,600" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" } ] }, { "label": "Antigen/antibody lab test (4th gen, blood from a vein) (window 18–45 days)", "cells": [ "n/a", "n/a", { "probability": 0.01244, "percent": "1.2%", "odds": "1 in 80" }, { "probability": 0.007023, "percent": "0.7%", "odds": "1 in 140" }, { "probability": 0.001837, "percent": "0.18%", "odds": "1 in 540" }, { "probability": 0.0007029, "percent": "0.07%", "odds": "1 in 1,400" }, { "probability": 0.0004786, "percent": "0.048%", "odds": "1 in 2,100" }, { "probability": 0.0001246, "percent": "0.012%", "odds": "1 in 8,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" } ] }, { "label": "Rapid antigen/antibody test (finger-prick) (window 18–90 days)", "cells": [ "n/a", "n/a", { "probability": 0.01244, "percent": "1.2%", "odds": "1 in 80" }, { "probability": 0.01004, "percent": "1%", "odds": "1 in 100" }, { "probability": 0.006085, "percent": "0.61%", "odds": "1 in 160" }, { "probability": 0.004251, "percent": "0.43%", "odds": "1 in 240" }, { "probability": 0.003682, "percent": "0.37%", "odds": "1 in 270" }, { "probability": 0.002226, "percent": "0.22%", "odds": "1 in 450" }, { "probability": 0.001793, "percent": "0.18%", "odds": "1 in 560" }, { "probability": 0.0006086, "percent": "0.061%", "odds": "1 in 1,600" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" } ] }, { "label": "Antibody test (most rapid tests and home self-tests) (window 23–90 days)", "cells": [ "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", { "probability": 0.008475, "percent": "0.85%", "odds": "1 in 120" }, { "probability": 0.005768, "percent": "0.58%", "odds": "1 in 170" }, { "probability": 0.004944, "percent": "0.49%", "odds": "1 in 200" }, { "probability": 0.00288, "percent": "0.29%", "odds": "1 in 350" }, { "probability": 0.002284, "percent": "0.23%", "odds": "1 in 440" }, { "probability": 0.0007151, "percent": "0.072%", "odds": "1 in 1,400" }, { "probability": 0.00001399, "percent": "0.0014%", "odds": "1 in 71,000" } ] } ] }, { "id": "partner-probability", "title": "Chance that a partner of unknown status has HIV", "note": "Before any treatment adjustment. For sexual exposures the calculator then counts only those who aren't virally suppressed (see the country table).", "columns": [ "United States", "United Kingdom", "Germany", "Brazil", "Thailand", "India", "Nigeria", "Kenya", "South Africa", "World average" ], "rows": [ { "label": "A man (general population)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.004, "percent": "0.4%", "odds": "1 in 250" }, { "probability": 0.002704, "percent": "0.27%", "odds": "1 in 370" }, { "probability": 0.00318, "percent": "0.32%", "odds": "1 in 310" }, { "probability": 0.009408, "percent": "0.94%", "odds": "1 in 110" }, { "probability": 0.01194, "percent": "1.2%", "odds": "1 in 84" }, { "probability": 0.002184, "percent": "0.22%", "odds": "1 in 460" }, { "probability": 0.008592, "percent": "0.86%", "odds": "1 in 120" }, { "probability": 0.02028, "percent": "2%", "odds": "1 in 49" }, { "probability": 0.1156, "percent": "12%", "odds": "1 in 9" }, { "probability": 0.006552, "percent": "0.66%", "odds": "1 in 150" } ] }, { "label": "A woman (general population)", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.004, "percent": "0.4%", "odds": "1 in 250" }, { "probability": 0.001296, "percent": "0.13%", "odds": "1 in 770" }, { "probability": 0.00082, "percent": "0.082%", "odds": "1 in 1,200" }, { "probability": 0.004592, "percent": "0.46%", "odds": "1 in 220" }, { "probability": 0.00806, "percent": "0.81%", "odds": "1 in 120" }, { "probability": 0.001816, "percent": "0.18%", "odds": "1 in 550" }, { "probability": 0.01541, "percent": "1.5%", "odds": "1 in 65" }, { "probability": 0.03972, "percent": "4%", "odds": "1 in 25" }, { "probability": 0.2284, "percent": "23%", "odds": "1 in 4" }, { "probability": 0.007448, "percent": "0.74%", "odds": "1 in 130" } ] }, { "label": "A female sex worker", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.05143, "percent": "5.1%", "odds": "1 in 19" }, { "probability": 0.01722, "percent": "1.7%", "odds": "1 in 58" }, { "probability": 0.01096, "percent": "1.1%", "odds": "1 in 91" }, { "probability": 0.05863, "percent": "5.9%", "odds": "1 in 17" }, { "probability": 0.09885, "percent": "9.9%", "odds": "1 in 10" }, { "probability": 0.02397, "percent": "2.4%", "odds": "1 in 42" }, { "probability": 0.1744, "percent": "17%", "odds": "1 in 6" }, { "probability": 0.3583, "percent": "36%", "odds": "1 in 3" }, { "probability": 0.7999, "percent": "80%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.09198, "percent": "9.2%", "odds": "1 in 11" } ] }, { "label": "A man who has sex with men", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.08456, "percent": "8.5%", "odds": "1 in 12" }, { "probability": 0.0587, "percent": "5.9%", "odds": "1 in 17" }, { "probability": 0.06836, "percent": "6.8%", "odds": "1 in 15" }, { "probability": 0.1793, "percent": "18%", "odds": "1 in 6" }, { "probability": 0.2175, "percent": "22%", "odds": "1 in 5" }, { "probability": 0.04793, "percent": "4.8%", "odds": "1 in 21" }, { "probability": 0.1662, "percent": "17%", "odds": "1 in 6" }, { "probability": 0.3225, "percent": "32%", "odds": "1 in 3" }, { "probability": 0.7504, "percent": "75%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.1317, "percent": "13%", "odds": "1 in 8" } ] }, { "label": "A man who injects drugs", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.05323, "percent": "5.3%", "odds": "1 in 19" }, { "probability": 0.03657, "percent": "3.7%", "odds": "1 in 27" }, { "probability": 0.04275, "percent": "4.3%", "odds": "1 in 23" }, { "probability": 0.1174, "percent": "12%", "odds": "1 in 9" }, { "probability": 0.1447, "percent": "14%", "odds": "1 in 7" }, { "probability": 0.02973, "percent": "3%", "odds": "1 in 34" }, { "probability": 0.1082, "percent": "11%", "odds": "1 in 9" }, { "probability": 0.2247, "percent": "22%", "odds": "1 in 4" }, { "probability": 0.6466, "percent": "65%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.08453, "percent": "8.5%", "odds": "1 in 12" } ] }, { "label": "A trans woman", "cells": [ { "probability": 0.1639, "percent": "16%", "odds": "1 in 6" }, { "probability": 0.08908, "percent": "8.9%", "odds": "1 in 11" }, { "probability": 0.08908, "percent": "8.9%", "odds": "1 in 11" }, { "probability": 0.256, "percent": "26%", "odds": "1 in 4" }, { "probability": 0.3302, "percent": "33%", "odds": "1 in 3" }, { "probability": 0.08908, "percent": "8.9%", "odds": "1 in 11" }, { "probability": 0.3721, "percent": "37%", "odds": "1 in 3" }, { "probability": 0.6015, "percent": "60%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.9102, "percent": "91%", "odds": null }, { "probability": 0.256, "percent": "26%", "odds": "1 in 4" } ] } ] }, { "id": "modifiers", "title": "Every adjustment the model applies", "note": "Multipliers apply to per-act risk unless marked as odds. Sources are listed on the methodology page.", "columns": [ "Effect", "Applies to" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Condom used throughout", "cells": [ "−80%", "Sexual exposures" ] }, { "label": "No ejaculation", "cells": [ "−50%", "Receptive and oral exposures" ] }, { "label": "Circumcised (you, insertive)", "cells": [ "−50%", "Insertive exposures" ] }, { "label": "Another STI present", "cells": [ "×2", "Sexual exposures" ] }, { "label": "Partner recently infected (acute HIV)", "cells": [ "×10", "All exposures" ] }, { "label": "Pregnant", "cells": [ "×2.82", "Receptive vaginal sex" ] }, { "label": "Gave birth in last 6 months", "cells": [ "×3.97", "Receptive vaginal sex" ] }, { "label": "Needlestick: deep injury", "cells": [ "×15 odds", "Needlestick" ] }, { "label": "Needlestick: visible blood on device", "cells": [ "×6.2 odds", "Needlestick" ] }, { "label": "Needlestick: needle had been in a vein or artery", "cells": [ "×4.3 odds", "Needlestick" ] }, { "label": "PrEP taken consistently", "cells": [ "−99% sex, −74% blood", "All exposures" ] }, { "label": "PrEP, a few missed doses", "cells": [ "−90% sex, −50% blood", "All exposures" ] }, { "label": "PrEP, often missed", "cells": [ "−50% sex, −20% blood", "All exposures" ] }, { "label": "PEP started within 24 hours", "cells": [ "−90%", "After the exposure" ] }, { "label": "PEP started 24–48 hours", "cells": [ "−80%", "After the exposure" ] }, { "label": "PEP started 48–72 hours", "cells": [ "−70%", "After the exposure" ] }, { "label": "Partner undetectable (U=U)", "cells": [ "no sexual risk", "Sexual exposures" ] }, { "label": "Partner: sex worker", "cells": [ "×13.5 odds of HIV", "Partner prevalence" ] }, { "label": "Partner: man who has sex with men", "cells": [ "×23 odds of HIV", "Partner prevalence" ] }, { "label": "Partner: injects drugs", "cells": [ "×14 odds of HIV", "Partner prevalence" ] }, { "label": "Partner: trans woman", "cells": [ "×48.8 odds of HIV", "Partner prevalence" ] }, { "label": "Male partner circumcised", "cells": [ "×0.5 relative prevalence", "Partner prevalence (not MSM)" ] } ] }, { "id": "test-windows", "title": "HIV test window periods (CDC)", "note": "Days after exposure. A negative result after the conclusive day rules out HIV from that exposure.", "columns": [ "Detects HIV from", "Conclusive from" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Nucleic acid test (NAT / RNA)", "cells": [ "day 10", "day 33" ] }, { "label": "Antigen/antibody lab test (4th gen, blood from a vein)", "cells": [ "day 18", "day 45" ] }, { "label": "Rapid antigen/antibody test (finger-prick)", "cells": [ "day 18", "day 90" ] }, { "label": "Antibody test (most rapid tests and home self-tests)", "cells": [ "day 23", "day 90" ] } ] }, { "id": "communities", "title": "Community prevalence figures", "note": "Used in place of the country figure when chosen. Higher rates reflect social and economic factors and sexual networks, not biology.", "columns": [ "Country", "Adults with HIV", "Source" ], "rows": [ { "label": "Black African", "cells": [ "UK", "4.55% women, 1.79% men", "NICE NG60, 2014 data: 1 in 22 heterosexual women, 1 in 56 heterosexual men" ] }, { "label": "Black or African American", "cells": [ "US", "1.18%", "CDC 2022: 1,035.6 per 100,000 living with diagnosed HIV, 88% of whom know their status" ] }, { "label": "White", "cells": [ "US", "0.18%", "CDC 2022: 156.5 per 100,000 living with diagnosed HIV, 89% of whom know their status" ] } ] }, { "id": "countries", "title": "HIV prevalence, treatment and circumcision by country", "note": "Adults aged 15–49 living with HIV (UNAIDS via World Bank), split by sex using UNAIDS women's share; share of people with HIV who are virally suppressed (treatment coverage × 93%); male circumcision (Morris et al. 2016). Rows marked approx. use national reporting instead of UNAIDS models.", "columns": [ "Adults with HIV", "Women", "Men", "Virally suppressed", "Men circumcised", "Year" ], "rows": [ { "label": "World average", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.745%", "0.655%", "72%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Sub-Saharan Africa", "cells": [ "3.02%", "3.82%", "2.23%", "77%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Eastern and Southern Africa", "cells": [ "4.23%", "5.28%", "3.18%", "78%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Western and Central Africa", "cells": [ "1.22%", "1.56%", "0.874%", "72%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Latin America and the Caribbean", "cells": [ "0.594%", "n/a", "n/a", "67%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "South Asia", "cells": [ "0.187%", "0.141%", "0.233%", "67%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Middle East and North Africa", "cells": [ "0.136%", "0.0797%", "0.192%", "27%", "n/a", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Afghanistan", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0192%", "0.181%", "10%", "99.8%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Albania", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0546%", "0.145%", "57%", "47.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Algeria", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0932%", "0.107%", "63%", "97.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Angola", "cells": [ "1.6%", "2.34%", "0.861%", "45%", "57.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Antigua and Barbuda", "cells": [ "1.1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "0.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Argentina", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.286%", "0.514%", "74%", "2.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Armenia", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.275%", "0.525%", "48%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Australia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0274%", "0.173%", "82%", "58%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Azerbaijan", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.056%", "0.144%", "80%", "98.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bahamas", "cells": [ "1.1%", "1.01%", "1.19%", "69%", "0.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bahrain", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.023%", "0.177%", "51%", "81.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bangladesh", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0648%", "0.135%", "38%", "93.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Barbados", "cells": [ "1%", "0.75%", "1.25%", "56%", "0.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Belgium", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.134%", "0.266%", "82%", "22.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Belize", "cells": [ "1.2%", "1.12%", "1.28%", "47%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Benin", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.902%", "0.498%", "81%", "92.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bhutan", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.169%", "0.231%", "65%", "1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bolivia", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.216%", "0.584%", "56%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Botswana", "cells": [ "15.7%", "19.4%", "12%", "88%", "15.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Brazil", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.459%", "0.941%", "68%", "1.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Bulgaria", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0394%", "0.161%", "58%", "13.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Burkina Faso", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.637%", "0.363%", "76%", "88.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Burundi", "cells": [ "0.8%", "1.01%", "0.587%", "87%", "61.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Cabo Verde", "cells": [ "0.9%", "0.855%", "0.945%", "74%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Cambodia", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.481%", "0.519%", "86%", "3.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Cameroon", "cells": [ "2.5%", "3.24%", "1.76%", "82%", "94%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Canada", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0526%", "0.147%", "71%", "31.9%", "2022" ] }, { "label": "Central African Republic", "cells": [ "2.4%", "3.12%", "1.68%", "61%", "63%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Chad", "cells": [ "0.9%", "1.13%", "0.666%", "61%", "73.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Chile", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.228%", "1.17%", "66%", "0.21%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "China (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "14%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Colombia", "cells": [ "0.6%", "0.216%", "0.984%", "61%", "4.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Comoros", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0984%", "0.102%", "78%", "99.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Congo (Democratic Republic)", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.889%", "0.511%", "66%", "97.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Congo (Republic)", "cells": [ "3.2%", "4.54%", "1.86%", "32%", "70%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Costa Rica", "cells": [ "0.6%", "0.173%", "1.03%", "58%", "0.15%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Côte d'Ivoire", "cells": [ "1.7%", "2.32%", "1.08%", "73%", "96.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Croatia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.021%", "0.179%", "79%", "1.34%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Cuba", "cells": [ "0.6%", "0.228%", "0.972%", "63%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Denmark", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0538%", "0.146%", "86%", "5.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Djibouti", "cells": [ "0.9%", "0.916%", "0.884%", "23%", "96.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Dominica", "cells": [ "0.5%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "0.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Dominican Republic", "cells": [ "1%", "1.02%", "0.982%", "61%", "13.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Ecuador", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.273%", "0.527%", "76%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Egypt", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0354%", "0.165%", "42%", "94.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "El Salvador", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.278%", "0.522%", "71%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Eritrea", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.496%", "0.304%", "67%", "97.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Estonia", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.549%", "0.851%", "64%", "0.25%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Eswatini", "cells": [ "23.4%", "28.6%", "18.2%", "87%", "8.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Ethiopia", "cells": [ "0.7%", "0.911%", "0.489%", "82%", "92.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Fiji", "cells": [ "1%", "0.916%", "1.08%", "22%", "55%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "France", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.203%", "0.397%", "85%", "14%", "2023" ] }, { "label": "Gabon", "cells": [ "2.8%", "3.99%", "1.61%", "60%", "99.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Gambia", "cells": [ "1.3%", "1.59%", "1.01%", "41%", "94.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Georgia", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.227%", "0.573%", "67%", "10.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Germany", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.082%", "0.318%", "87%", "6.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Ghana", "cells": [ "1.5%", "2.09%", "0.912%", "44%", "91.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Greece", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.103%", "0.497%", "61%", "4.74%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Guatemala", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.144%", "0.256%", "73%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Guinea", "cells": [ "1.3%", "1.71%", "0.889%", "69%", "84.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Guinea-Bissau", "cells": [ "2.2%", "2.97%", "1.43%", "74%", "93.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Guyana", "cells": [ "1.6%", "1.62%", "1.58%", "64%", "12%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Haiti", "cells": [ "1.6%", "1.99%", "1.21%", "81%", "6.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Honduras", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.165%", "0.235%", "69%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Iceland", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0592%", "0.141%", "82%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "India", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.182%", "0.218%", "67%", "13.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Indonesia", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.262%", "0.538%", "38%", "92.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Iraq", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0356%", "0.164%", "61%", "98.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Ireland", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.13%", "0.27%", "91%", "0.93%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Italy", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.156%", "0.444%", "80%", "2.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Jamaica", "cells": [ "1.1%", "1.06%", "1.14%", "50%", "14%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Japan (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.02%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "9%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Jordan", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0324%", "0.168%", "60%", "98.8%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Kazakhstan", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.293%", "0.307%", "69%", "56.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Kenya", "cells": [ "3%", "3.97%", "2.03%", "81%", "91.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Kuwait", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0336%", "0.166%", "64%", "86.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Kyrgyzstan", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.239%", "0.361%", "49%", "91.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Laos", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.288%", "0.512%", "60%", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Latvia", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.37%", "0.63%", "48%", "0.38%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Lebanon", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0178%", "0.182%", "74%", "59.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Lesotho", "cells": [ "17.1%", "21.3%", "12.9%", "87%", "52%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Liberia", "cells": [ "0.9%", "1.18%", "0.621%", "80%", "97.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Libya", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0802%", "0.12%", "47%", "96.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Lithuania", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.106%", "0.294%", "48%", "0.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Luxembourg", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.179%", "0.421%", "78%", "2.42%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Madagascar", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.473%", "0.527%", "27%", "94.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Malawi", "cells": [ "6.2%", "8.01%", "4.39%", "84%", "21.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Malaysia", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.115%", "0.485%", "56%", "61.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Maldives", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0556%", "0.144%", "45%", "98.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Mali", "cells": [ "0.8%", "1.01%", "0.586%", "63%", "86%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Malta", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.115%", "0.485%", "64%", "0.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Mauritania", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.113%", "0.0866%", "71%", "99.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Mexico", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.178%", "0.822%", "61%", "15.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Moldova", "cells": [ "0.9%", "0.706%", "1.09%", "49%", "0.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Mongolia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0316%", "0.168%", "38%", "4.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Montenegro", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.024%", "0.176%", "57%", "18.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Morocco", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0774%", "0.123%", "71%", "99.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Mozambique", "cells": [ "11.5%", "15%", "7.98%", "76%", "47.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Myanmar", "cells": [ "0.9%", "0.747%", "1.05%", "70%", "3.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Namibia", "cells": [ "9%", "11.7%", "6.34%", "88%", "25.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Nepal", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0842%", "0.116%", "72%", "4.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Netherlands", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0374%", "0.163%", "83%", "5.7%", "2023" ] }, { "label": "New Zealand", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0352%", "0.165%", "78%", "33%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Niger", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.231%", "0.169%", "61%", "95.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Nigeria", "cells": [ "1.2%", "1.54%", "0.859%", "77%", "98.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "North Macedonia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0172%", "0.183%", "55%", "33.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Norway", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0682%", "0.132%", "n/a", "3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Oman", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0492%", "0.151%", "63%", "87.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Pakistan", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.07%", "0.33%", "15%", "96.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Panama", "cells": [ "1.1%", "0.625%", "1.58%", "62%", "0.95%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Papua New Guinea", "cells": [ "1.5%", "1.86%", "1.14%", "43%", "10.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Paraguay", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.323%", "0.677%", "54%", "0.11%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Peru", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.179%", "0.621%", "74%", "3.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Philippines", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.0426%", "0.557%", "37%", "91.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Poland (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "0.11%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Portugal", "cells": [ "0.5%", "0.291%", "0.709%", "76%", "0.61%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Qatar", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0346%", "0.165%", "43%", "77.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Romania", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.141%", "0.259%", "83%", "0.34%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Russia (approx.)", "cells": [ "1.2%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "11.8%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Rwanda", "cells": [ "2%", "2.54%", "1.46%", "89%", "13.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Saint Kitts and Nevis", "cells": [ "0.8%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "0.3%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Saint Lucia", "cells": [ "0.4%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "0.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Saint Vincent and the Grenadines", "cells": [ "0.8%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "1.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Saudi Arabia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0262%", "0.174%", "87%", "97.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Senegal", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.333%", "0.267%", "74%", "93.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Serbia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0226%", "0.177%", "61%", "3.71%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Sierra Leone", "cells": [ "1.4%", "1.81%", "0.986%", "80%", "96.1%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Singapore", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.017%", "0.183%", "80%", "14.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Slovakia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.027%", "0.173%", "61%", "0.15%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Slovenia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0234%", "0.177%", "80%", "8.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Solomon Islands", "cells": [ "0.1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "95%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Somalia, Fed. Rep.", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.11%", "0.0896%", "58%", "93.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "South Africa", "cells": [ "17.2%", "22.8%", "11.6%", "75%", "44.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "South Korea (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.03%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "77%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "South Sudan", "cells": [ "1.5%", "1.93%", "1.07%", "47%", "23.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Spain", "cells": [ "0.3%", "0.103%", "0.497%", "84%", "6.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Sri Lanka", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.039%", "0.161%", "66%", "8.5%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Sudan", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.182%", "0.218%", "19%", "39.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Suriname", "cells": [ "1.6%", "1.34%", "1.86%", "46%", "15.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Sweden", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0782%", "0.122%", "88%", "5.1%", "2022" ] }, { "label": "Switzerland", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.107%", "0.293%", "84%", "5.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Syria", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0464%", "0.154%", "51%", "92.8%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Tajikistan", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.147%", "0.253%", "75%", "99%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Tanzania", "cells": [ "3.5%", "4.63%", "2.37%", "81%", "72%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Thailand", "cells": [ "1%", "0.806%", "1.19%", "82%", "11.9%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Timor-Leste", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.121%", "0.279%", "57%", "6.4%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Togo", "cells": [ "1.6%", "2.12%", "1.08%", "86%", "95.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Tunisia", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0536%", "0.146%", "27%", "99.8%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Türkiye (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.05%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "98.6%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Tuvalu", "cells": [ "0.4%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "95%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Uganda", "cells": [ "4.9%", "6.24%", "3.56%", "79%", "26.7%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Ukraine (approx.)", "cells": [ "1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "2.3%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "United Arab Emirates", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0346%", "0.165%", "72%", "76%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "United Kingdom", "cells": [ "0.2%", "0.13%", "0.27%", "87%", "20.7%", "2023" ] }, { "label": "United States (approx.)", "cells": [ "0.4%", "n/a", "n/a", "57%", "80.5%", "n/a" ] }, { "label": "Vanuatu", "cells": [ "0.1%", "n/a", "n/a", "n/a", "95%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Venezuela", "cells": [ "0.6%", "0.336%", "0.864%", "53%", "0.33%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Vietnam", "cells": [ "0.4%", "0.232%", "0.568%", "69%", "0.2%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Yemen", "cells": [ "0.1%", "0.0618%", "0.138%", "27%", "99%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Zambia", "cells": [ "9.4%", "11.9%", "6.88%", "87%", "21.6%", "2024" ] }, { "label": "Zimbabwe", "cells": [ "9.8%", "11.8%", "7.8%", "88%", "9.2%", "2024" ] } ] } ] }