Prevalence and per-act risk na different numbers
Two numbers dey decide your risk from one time wey you do sex wit person wey you no know im HIV status:
- Prevalence: how many adults for one place get HIV, out of all di adults dem. Di figures here na UNAIDS estimates for adults wey dem age dey from 15 to 49. For some countries wey no get dis estimate, like US, di calculator dey use approximate national figures.
- Risk for each act: di chance say HIV go pass for one act if your partner really get HIV and no dey take treatment wey dey work. For insertive vaginal sex (you be di person wey dey enter), CDC estimate am as 0.04% (around 1 out of 2,500).
Your overall risk na roughly di first one multiply by di second one. Na why di numbers for di tables below small well-well pass di per-act risks wey you fit don read for oda places.
Treatment dey change di matter
Person wey get HIV, wey dey take treatment and im viral load (how much HIV dey di blood) dey undetectable (di HIV for blood don low reach where test no fit see am), no dey pass HIV through sex. Dem dey call dis one U=U (Undetectable = Untransmittable). So wetin matter no be only how many pipo get HIV, but how many of dem dey take treatment and dia viral load don go down well.
Round di world, WHO report say for di end of 2025 about 41.0 million pipo dey live wit HIV. Out of dem, 88% sabi dia status, 89% of dose ones dey take treatment, and 95% of di ones wey dey take treatment get viral load wey don go down well. How many pipo dey get treatment dey different well-well between countries, and di tables dey consider each country own treatment coverage.
Risk for one act wit partner wey you no know im status
Each table dey show di estimated risk from one act of insertive vaginal sex without condom (man wit woman) wit partner wey you no know im status, using dat country prevalence and treatment data.
Di Americas
| Country | Risk for each exposure | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| United States | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,500,000 |
| Canada | <0.0001% | 1 out of 16,000,000 |
| Mexico | <0.0001% | 1 out of 3,600,000 |
| Brazil | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,700,000 |
| Argentina | <0.0001% | 1 out of 3,300,000 |
| Colombia | <0.0001% | 1 out of 3,000,000 |
| Jamaica | 0.00021% | 1 out of 470,000 |
| Haiti | 0.00015% | 1 out of 660,000 |
Europe
| Country | Risk for each exposure | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | <0.0001% | 1 out of 15,000,000 |
| Ireland | <0.0001% | 1 out of 22,000,000 |
| France | <0.0001% | 1 out of 8,000,000 |
| Germany | <0.0001% | 1 out of 23,000,000 |
| Spain | <0.0001% | 1 out of 15,000,000 |
| Italy | <0.0001% | 1 out of 8,000,000 |
| Netherlands | <0.0001% | 1 out of 39,000,000 |
| Portugal | <0.0001% | 1 out of 3,600,000 |
| Poland | <0.0001% | 1 out of 2,500,000 |
| Ukraine | 0.0004% | 1 out of 250,000 |
| Russia | 0.00048% | 1 out of 210,000 |
Asia and di Pacific
| Country | Risk for each exposure | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| India | <0.0001% | 1 out of 4,200,000 |
| China | <0.0001% | 1 out of 2,500,000 |
| Japan | <0.0001% | 1 out of 12,000,000 |
| Thailand | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,700,000 |
| Vietnam | <0.0001% | 1 out of 3,500,000 |
| Philippines | <0.0001% | 1 out of 9,300,000 |
| Indonesia | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,500,000 |
| Pakistan | <0.0001% | 1 out of 4,200,000 |
| Australia | <0.0001% | 1 out of 50,000,000 |
Africa and di Middle East
| Country | Risk for each exposure | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Egypt | <0.0001% | 1 out of 12,000,000 |
| Morocco | <0.0001% | 1 out of 11,000,000 |
| Nigeria | 0.00014% | 1 out of 710,000 |
| Ghana | 0.00047% | 1 out of 210,000 |
| Cameroon | 0.00024% | 1 out of 420,000 |
| Ethiopia | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,500,000 |
| Kenya | 0.0003% | 1 out of 330,000 |
| Uganda | 0.00052% | 1 out of 190,000 |
| Tanzania | 0.00035% | 1 out of 280,000 |
| Mozambique | 0.0014% | 1 out of 70,000 |
| Zimbabwe | 0.00055% | 1 out of 180,000 |
| South Africa | 0.0023% | 1 out of 44,000 |
| Botswana | 0.00091% | 1 out of 110,000 |
| Eswatini | 0.0014% | 1 out of 69,000 |
Average for each region
| Country | Risk for each exposure | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| World average | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,200,000 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 0.00035% | 1 out of 280,000 |
| Eastern and Southern Africa | 0.00046% | 1 out of 220,000 |
| Western and Central Africa | 0.00018% | 1 out of 570,000 |
| Latin America and di Caribbean | <0.0001% | 1 out of 1,300,000 |
| South Asia | <0.0001% | 1 out of 5,300,000 |
| Middle East and North Africa | <0.0001% | 1 out of 4,300,000 |
For receptive vaginal sex (woman wit man), di per-act risk high pass. For United States, for example, di estimate wit partner wey you no know im status na 0.00014% (around 1 out of 730,000), and for South Africa na 0.0023% (around 1 out of 44,000). Full tables for every type of sex dey for di risk tables page.
Where HIV common pass
WHO report say 64% of pipo wey dey live wit HIV dey for WHO African Region. Prevalence high pass for eastern and southern Africa, where for some countries, big part of di adults get HIV. For most of Western Europe, East Asia and di Middle East, e low well-well, e no reach one percent.
National figures na just where to start
Country average dey hide big differences. HIV common pass for some cities, communities and sexual networks (groups of pipo wey dey do sex wit each oda) than for oda ones. CDC link dis kain gaps to social tins like poverty, stigma and how some pipo no get equal access to health care. UNAIDS estimate say gay and bisexual men and oda men wey dey sleep wit men fit get HIV about 23 times more, and pipo wey dey inject drug about 14 times. HIV still dey far more common among sex workers and trans women than for di general population.
So for man wey dey do receptive anal sex (anal sex wey you be di person wey dem enter) wit anoda man wey e no know im status for United States, di estimate na 0.05% (around 1 out of 2,000), wey high pass di vaginal-sex figures wey dey up. Di calculator go let you add dis kain details to get estimate wey near your own situation well.
Wetin di numbers no fit tell you
Dis ones na averages. Dem no fit tell you weda one particular person get HIV. Anybody fit get HIV and no know, especially for di first weeks afta infection, wen di viral load high pass. Low number fit make your mind rest, but na only test fit give you sure answer.
Wetin to do now
- Exposure (wen HIV fit don enter your body) happen for di last 72 hours, wit partner wey get HIV or wey you no know im status? Ask about PEP (post-exposure prophylaxis: HIV medicine wey you go take afta exposure to stop di virus) today. You must start am within 72 hours and e dey work best within 24. How to get PEP
- You want sure answer? Do test afta di window period (di time afta infection wen test neva fit show HIV). Di page how accurate HIV test be week by week dey show wen negative result from each test go dey final.
- You want number for your own situation? Di calculator dey combine di country, di type of exposure and any protection wey you use.